Forecasting intensity changes in tropical cyclones

One of the major weather forecasting challenges remains the skilful prediction of changes in the intensities (maximum wind speeds) of tropical cyclones. Progress has been made in the past few years, to the point where useful guidance on intensity changes can be obtained both from statistical models and also from numerical models.

Tropical cyclones interact strongly with the upper ocean. A project is currently in progress, in collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology, to specify better the representation of the upper ocean in a numerical forecast model. For more information, see the following paper (login ID and password: 19382455).

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