625-103 Atmosphere and Oceans

Weather Tipping - 2006
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This is a special competition where you can test your weather forecasting skills for different locations around Australia. The competition will follow the familiar format of a regular football tipping competition but instead of winners, we're looking for your predictions of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and rainfall. The player with the lowest overall error at the end of the forecasting period will be declared the winner.

Please ensure you check the fixture for the location you're forecasting for this week

  Final result: xx is the winner!  

Rules 1.   Forecasts are required for minimum temperature, maximum temperature and rainfall.

Maximum Temperature Measured between 9am and midnight of forecast day
Minimum Temperature Measured between 9am previous day and 9am forecast day
Rainfall Measured between 9am forecast day and 9am following day

2.   Forecasts are to be made for Saturday and Sunday.
3.   No forecasts will be permitted after 8pm Friday, on Saturday or Sunday.
4.   Temperatures selected from the nearest whole degree Celsius and rainfall is selected from certain ranges.
5.   You may use any source of information to come up with your forecasts.
6.   Forecasting locations will change for each week - be sure to check the fixture list to see which city you're forecasting for!
7.   Overall results are given as the magnitude of the error for all forecast fields.
8.   Errors for rainfall will be +1 for each rain category away from observed (eg: If 'No rain' forecast (category 1), but 1.5mm observed (category 4), then error will be 3)
9.   Anyone missing the cutoff time for submitting forecasts will be given a climatology forecast for temperature and a forecast for no rainfall.
10.   You can sign up to play at any time - even during the season, but you will start with the current climatology score.
11.   Results will be measured against Bureau of Meteorology observational data reported by the daily weather observations** website.
(**nb:  rainfall reported at this site is the amount reported at 9am of that day, therefore by the definitions of rainfall for this competition (listed above), Saturday 24 hr. rainfall will be that reported at 9am Sunday etc...)
12.   The OCF competitor is the Bureau of Met Operational Consensus Forecast which combines an array of climate model forecasts - the next generation of forecast tool. Try and beat it!

Ready to go? Remember to check this week's forecasting location in the fixture list and then go ahead and submit your forecast. Good Luck!

 Made a mistake?  Don't worry - you can make as many forecasts as you like before the cutoff time of 8pm, Fridays.  Only your last forecast is recorded.

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